IslamicFinance.de

S&P Global Ratings believes that the drop in Islamic finance growth is likely to continue in 2017. Nevertheless, it estimates the industry’s total assets will reach $2.1 trillion at year-end 2016. S&P Global Head of Islamic Finance Mohamed Damak said Islamic finance will maintain growth of around 5% in 2017. The oil price environment will weigh negatively on economic growth in the GCC for the next two years. A broader consensus around the need to standardize legal structures and Sharia interpretation could help the industry to progress. Another great help could be the industry’s potential contribution to the United Nation’s sustainable development financing goals.

Oil prices have plummeted sharply since mid-2014, putting an end to the commodities super cycle that started a decade ago. S&P Global Ratings expects oil prices will remain substantially below peak levels and stabilize at $50 per barrel by 2018 and beyond. While governments affected by the price drop are looking to spending cuts, taxation, and the privatization of state companies, their financing needs remain significant. Despite the significant drop in oil price since mid-2014, total sukuk issuance didn’t pick up in 2015 or the first half of 2016. In fact, issuance actually dropped in the first half of 2016 by 12.5% compared with the same period in 2015. Issuances in the second half of 2016 will continue to depend on monetary policy developments and volatility in developed markets as well as the policy actions of sovereigns in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Malaysia.