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Fitch Ratings is organizing a webinar on September 30th with the title ME Islamic & Conventional banks, wading through COVID-19 and Low Oil Prices. Discussion topics will include: ME Banks Overview (conventional and Islamic); Rating Actions so far; Islamic Banks compared to Conventional Banks (in General); Islamic Finance regulation and standardisation; AI, Fintech in the Region, M&A. There will be an opportunity for Q&A. Please submit your questions via the ‘Q&A’ box within the webinar console or to Melissa Cloquet at melissa.cloquet@fitchratings.com.

Fitch Ratings has been recognised as the Best Rating Agency for Islamic Finance for the fourth consecutive year by The Asset magazine. Fitch has a dedicated sukuk rating criteria and provides takaful-specific considerations within its global insurance rating criteria. It also provides specific consideration to environment, social and governance factors in its ESG scores in rating Islamic banks. Recent landmark deals in which Fitch participated include the first sovereign green sukuk, issued by Indonesia in 2018, and its follow-up issue in 2019 and 2020.

According to Fitch Ratings, Islamic financing and deposits accounted for 27% of total sector financing and deposits at end-2019. Growth in Islamic financing slowed significantly in 2019. Asset-quality metrics deteriorated in 2019, particularly due to pressures in the real estate and contracting sectors, but also in entertainment, hospitality, and retail and wholesale trade. The operating profit/risk-weighted assets ratio also deteriorated due to increased financing impairment charges. Capital ratios have increased over the past four years, while core capital ratios remain below those of conventional banks but the difference has narrowed.

According to Fitch Ratings, Saudi Islamic banks’ financial metrics deteriorated mildly in 2019 but remained sound. As for conventional banks, the rating agency noted that the impaired financing ratios continued to increase in 2019. Islamic banks have lower impaired financing ratios and financing impairment charges than conventional banks due to their lower proportion of corporate banking. Islamic banks’ profitability remained above conventional banks’ in 2019. Strong deposit growth at Islamic banks in 2019 allowed their financing/deposits ratio to drop below their conventional peers’. Saudi Islamic banks remain well capitalised, with an average Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 17.8% at end-2019. According to Fitch, if the current economic disruption continues, weaker asset quality and profitability are likely to put pressure on capital.

The spread of the corona virus will pressure Qatari banks' asset quality and funding volatility could recur. As Fitch does not expect any changes in the Qatari authorities' ability to provide timely support all Qatari banks have a Stable outlook. The consequences of the coronavirus and lower hydrocarbon revenues will weaken government capital spending, which will in turn affect the operating environment. Fitch now forecasts Qatar's real GDP growth at minus 2% in 2020, after an estimated 0.6% positive growth in 2019. Qatari banks have adequate capital buffers but an increase in problem loans could erode these buffers quickly.

Malaysia has firmly established itself as an Islamic hub in the world through leadership and innovative product offerings. As such, the creation of an Islamic finance-enabling ecosystem is the key driver of the Malaysian takaful industry’s growth. The takaful sector continues to enjoy faster growth than the conventional insurance sector. Family and general takaful premiums rose by 29.6% and 16.4% respectively in the first half of 2019 (1H19), compared to 12.2% in conventional life and -1.3% in general insurance. However, surverys show that almost half of the Malaysian population does not have protection due to a lack of awareness. According to Fitch Ratings, takaful operators should rethink the way these products are positioned to entice a larger crowd looking for general protection through the use of digital applications.

According to Fitch Ratings, Malaysia remains the main sukuk issuer this year besides countries from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The increase in Malaysia’s sukuk market is largely driven by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and contributed by local currency corporate issuance. Notable corporate deals included energy service firm Serba Dinamik’s US$300 million (RM1.25 bilion) sukuk, the first dollar high-yield sukuk offering in the Asia-Pacific region. The Malaysian market shows how as the Shariah-compliant investor base grows, the cost of sukuk issuance becomes more competitive relative to conventional bonds. Fitch believes that global volumes normalised rather than declined last year after hitting record levels in 2017. Moving forward, Fitch believes macro-economic and geopolitical conditions will affect sukuk issuance. GCC debt markets are relatively developing but individual sovereign funding decisions can profoundly affect total supply.

According to Fitch Ratings, international sukuk issuance from major Islamic finance markets were almost unchanged in the first nine months of 2019 year-on-year (y-o-y). Sukuk issuance with a maturity of more than 18 months from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan totalled US$30.6 billion in 9M19 compared with US$31 billion in 9M18. This supports the view that volumes normalised rather than declined last year after hitting record levels in 2017. Fitch said that GCC debt markets are still relatively developing, and individual sovereign funding decisions can profoundly affect total supply. Fitch believes that new issuance volumes in the coming years will also be supported by refinancing activity. Nearly two-thirds of the US$99.4 billion of outstanding Fitch-rated sukuk at end-1H19 mature in less than five years.

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Qatar Islamic Bank’s (QIB) outlook to 'stable'. The move reflects Fitch's view that Qatar has successfully managed the fallout from last year's rupture of trade, financial and diplomatic relations. Public sector liquidity injections have stabilised the banking sector and stemmed the outflow of non-domestic funding. The government has demonstrated a strong commitment to its banks and key public sector companies. Earlier this year, Fitch also affirmed QIB’s Long Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A'. These ratings of QIB reflect its well-established franchise in Qatar, with a market share of about 11% of total banking system assets at end-2017.

According to Fitch Ratings, the moderate growth in sukuk issuances in the first quarter underpins continued investor interest, but it also points out to structural constraints. The total volume of sukuk rated by Fitch for the three-month period through to March end, stood at $80 billion (Dh294bn), a 6% rise from the figures recorded at the end of 2017. New sukuk issuance with a maturity of more than 18 months from the Arabian Gulf states, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan came in at $14.9bn for the first quarter of 2018, a modest 1% year-on-year rise. The issuances during the first quarter of 2018 were largely driven by the GCC region, whose funding needs are likely to fall if oil prices stay high. Issuer funding needs and investor appetite for the remainder of the year will be determined by factors including oil prices and tighter global financing conditions.

Fitch Ratings has assigned Kuwait Finance House’s sukuk programme an expected A+ and F1 rating. KFH Sukuk, the issuer and trustee, is a special purpose vehicle (SPV), incorporated in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), solely to issue certificates (sukuk) under the programme. The trustee has been incorporated solely for the purpose of participating in the transactions contemplated by the transaction documents.

QIIB announced that Moody’s and Fitch Ratings have affirmed its ratings at 'A2' and 'A' respectively. Moody’s said that its rating is based on several considerations, one of which is that the bank maintains high levels of liquidity and a strong capital base. Fitch explained that immediate risks from the diplomatic crisis to the bank’s overall standalone credit profile has reduced. The bank’s funding profile has generally stabilised from the back of outflows of nondomestic funding and the Qatari authorities have continued to provide funding support. QIIB's CEO Dr Abdulbasit Ahmad al-Shaibei said this strong rating was a confirmation of the strength of the Qatari economy and its ability to overcome various types of risks. He added that the ratings of Moody’s and Fitch proved that QIIB had a solid financial position, confirmed by its financial results, as in the third quarter of 2017, when the bank achieved a growth of 5.1%.

Fitch Ratings has assigned Mazoon Electricity Company's Sukuk an expected rating of 'BBB'. The expected rating is in line with Mazoon Electricity’s Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB', which has a negative outlook. Mazoon Assets Company’s is the issuer of the certificates and trustee and is a closed joint stock company in accordance with the laws of the Sultanate. The trustee has been incorporated solely for the purpose of participating in the transactions contemplated by the transaction documents. Earlier, Moody’s Investors Service assigned a Baa2 rating to Mazoon’s Sukuk certificates. The outlook on all ratings is negative.

According to Fitch Ratings, a tougher operating environment is continuing to challenge Saudi Islamic banks. Sustained low oil prices have taken their toll on economic growth and government spending and this affects certain sectors. Asset-quality metrics are likely to deteriorate from their current strong position due to slower Islamic financing growth. Islamic banks accounted for about 43% of the sector at end-1H16, up from 36.6% in 1H15. There are 12 licensed commercial banks in Saudi Arabia. Four are fully sharia-compliant, with the rest providing a mix of sharia-compliant and conventional banking products. The performance and credit matrices of Islamic and conventional banks are similar in many ways due to the largely Islamic finance nature of the lending market in Saudi Arabia.

The Qatar Islamic Bank aims to boost its deposit base by offering certificates of deposit in Qatari riyals and US$, after it was hit by an outflow of money due to sanctions against Qatar by its neighbouring Gulf countries. The bank said this weekend, that it was offering 1 and 2 year CDs in its 2nd series of such papers. Its first series was launched End of 2015. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain cut diplomatic and transport ties with Qatar beginning of June this year, accusing the country of supporting terrorism. This prompted some firms and individuals from those states to pull money out of the Qatari banks. As a result, deposits in the Qatari banks shrank 1.8 % from the previous month in June. Qatar Islamic Bank was particularly hard hit, with its customer deposits falling to US$26.6 billion at end of June, according to its financial statements.

According to Fitch Ratings, Islamic banking products in Morocco could expand their deposit bases by 5 to 10%. Fitch notes that the ability to grow the deposit base is positive for Morocco’s economic development because deposits represent about 70% of banking sector funding. The experts also noted that banking penetration is already high in Morocco, with 70% of adults holding a bank account. Therefore, participation banking is unlikely to take a significant market share from the well-established conventional banks. Growth rates in the Moroccan banking sector have been volatile in recent years, reflecting unsteady economic trends. Deposit growth has outstripped loan growth, but credit demand is set to accelerate. The ability to offer participation banking services could broaden the pool of potential depositors in the country, mitigating the competitive pressure.

According to Fitch Ratings, a slowdown in Islamic financing growth in the UAE will reveal a deterioration in banks' asset quality as portfolios season more quickly. This will start to become evident as banks report their 2016 results. Financing growth slowed in 2016 and a continuing slowdown in 2017 is expected. Demand for Islamic financing in the UAE has grown rapidly with increasing customer awareness and wider adoption of Shari'ah products, especially among retail customers. Growth of Islamic bank financing in 2016 was expected to have been significantly lower than in 2015, although still higher than that of conventional bank lending. Newer Islamic banks with smaller franchises are likely to be affected first by the slowdown. Those that have been established for longer are likely to be affected later, and to a lesser degree, given their stronger franchises.

According to Fitch Ratings, the plan to introduce Value Added Tax (VAT) in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states could be a key test for the region's Islamic finance industry. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain approved the implementation of VAT in the GCC, however, local implementation laws must still be agreed in each country. This paves the way for the introduction of an expected 5% VAT rate as early as the beginning of 2018. Without tax neutrality or equality rules, the introduction of VAT would put Islamic finance transactions at a disadvantage to conventional transactions. A VAT charge adds to the instalment payments in a murabaha, while a conventional transaction would not have VAT for the sale of the asset added to the interest payments. Numerous countries with VAT have provided for some form of tax neutrality or equality for Islamic finance transactions, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan.

According to Fitch Ratings, Malaysia's takaful sector continues to enjoy higher growth than the conventional sector. This growth is driven by a low base, stable domestic consumption and increasing consumer awareness. The rating agency said that regulatory pressure would drive sector consolidation in the short term. As takaful operators realign their strategic focus and gradually retain more risks, Fitch expects some bottom-line volatility in the short term. For the first half of 2016 (1H2016), family takaful grew by 9.8%, while general takaful grew by 5.8%. This compared to 8.2% growth in conventional life and 2.6% in general insurance.

Fitch Ratings said it expects sukuk issuance in 2017 to continue at the same pace like last year. Sukuk issuance in core markets rose by 26% in 2016 and maintained its share of capital markets funding despite large conventional bond issues by Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar. New sukuk issuance with a maturity over 18 months from the core markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, Malaysia, Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan rose to $40 billion in 2016 from about $32 billion a year earlier. In 2016 10 key markets issued sovereign sukuk and other sovereigns in the GCC region have indicated they could issue sukuk, or a mix, in the future. Sovereigns and supranationals are likely to remain the dominant issuers, but bank issuance may also rise in some markets, driven by issuance to meet regulatory capital requirements.