Good News and Bad News with ‘the Donald Trump of Turkey’

Turkey is a test-tube study in how emerging market (EM) countries reach developed status. As such, it is subject to the interactions between developed and emerging markets, including hot money capital flows, currency wars and the struggles with interest rate policy and inflation. The good news is that the banking system is functioning well and inflation is contained. The bad news is that Turkish financial markets are now subject to many of the adverse trends affecting all EM economies around the world. The central bank is under pressure from politicians to cut interest rates and devalue the Turkish currency to promote exports and tourism.